My first AI business model test | Dabble.AI #4

The Dabble.AI Project #4 - Exploring autonomous business models

What is the simplest business model that could be automated with AI? What models seem to provide the shortest path to profits? What could I create in a day? What could I create in the next hour?

Today is December 19, 2023. It's 7:07 AM. It's a Tuesday. I've been working on The Dabble.AI Project for 10 days now. I’ve spent just over 20 hours and all I have are a bunch of notes and a few blog posts to show for it. But my main objective isn’t to create a blog. I'm trying to create an automated business. There is a fine line between planning and procrastinating.

This was my first book and one of the fist books written about the OpenAI API. It took almost 12 months of work before it was published by Packt Publishing on August 27, 2021 - about 3 months before the OpenAI API was released publicly.

It took me almost 12 months to write my book Exploring GPT-3. I invested just over 1,000 hours total. I think I could write the same book today in a matter of weeks - in under 100 hours - using ChatGPT and a few other tools. I might be able to do it in a few days if I didn’t need to spend time on research, testing, editing, and formatting. My Exploring GPT-3 book has sold very well. But, I invested a lot of time and the royalties percentage I get from the publisher isn’t great. So, it has not been a super exciting ROI from a time invested perspective. However, if I was able to create a book in 100 hours or less, and publish it myself - maybe that would make it more interesting. 

Assuming I’m charging myself $125/hour, if I could use AI to create and publish a book in under 100 hours, my time investment would be $12,500. If the book sold 625 copies at an average of $20 / copy - I’d break even. But that assumes I don’t spend time or money on anything else - like marketing / promoting the book. That’s not realistic. Let’s plan $5,000 for marketing and misc. So, total investment would be $17,500. Meaning, I’d need to sell 875 copies to break even. I should test that theory. But spending 100+ hours is more than I really want to invest on this model. At this point anyhow. Maybe I should try to create a book in a few hours just to dabble through the workflow. I’ll do that. I’m going to spend one hour trying to create a book. I’ll decide from there if I want to spend more time.

One of my favorite topics is game theory. I’ve been thinking about it a lot lately. I was going to write a post about it. But again, I’m not trying to create a blog. So, maybe I’ll try to use AI to generate a book about game theory. I’m guessing if I search Amazon there are tons of game theory books already. So, lots of competition. I’m also guessing the target market for people just interested in learning about game theory isn’t big - relatively speaking. I could use AI to try and gauge the market size but I’m more interested in seeing how fast I could get a book to market first. If the product is decent, and I can get it done quickly - I’ll invest more time on market research. 

How should I engineer the prompt? I need a title, subtitle, short description, outline, chapter titles, chapter topics, and the chapter content. From there I need a list of other stuff I’ll need to get done. Like creating a cover image, getting an ISBN number, and formatting it for Amazon. 

I’ve never self published a book before. Packt Publishing did all of this for my Exploring GPT-3 book. So, that part is a black box for me. I see tons of self-published books so I assume the process is simple. Not sure if it can be automated but I would bet it probably can. But that’s not important now.

Let’s start with a prompt. I’ll use GPT 4 because it’s pretty good with more complex instructions. I want GPT to break things down into steps/parts so I can provide feedback as it generates the book. I’m not going to spend time trying to optimize the prompt now because I want to see how far I can get in an hour. So, here’s the prompt I’ll use.

I want to try an create a book in an hour. I want to write it on a topic I know well so that I can read and review it quickly. The topic will be game theory. I want to start by coming up with a title, subtitle, and description. From there I'd like to create an outline. The outline should include a chapter list and a few bullet points for each chapter. After confirming that I like the outline, write each chapter but confirm that I like the chapter before moving on to the next. Once the book is written, list the other things I'll need to publish the book on Amazon. For example, I'll need a cover image and I'll need to get the book into a format that works for Amazon. Let's get started. 

Here are the results (aka: completion) from my first prompt.

Fantastic! Embarking on a rapid book-writing journey on game theory sounds like an exciting and intellectually stimulating endeavor. Here's a structured approach to kickstart your project:

### Step 1: Title, Subtitle, and Description

1. **Title**: "Strategic Moves: Mastering Game Theory"
2. **Subtitle**: "A Concise Guide to the Art of Rational Decision Making"
3. **Description**: This book offers a swift yet comprehensive dive into the world of game theory. Designed for enthusiasts, students, and professionals alike, "Strategic Moves" demystifies the complex principles of game theory and applies them to real-world scenarios. From classic dilemmas like the Prisoner's Dilemma to advanced concepts in evolutionary game theory, this guide serves as a practical companion for anyone looking to enhance their strategic thinking skills.

### Step 2: Outline with Chapter List and Bullet Points

1. **Introduction to Game Theory**
   - Definition and historical background
   - Basic concepts: players, strategies, and payoffs
   - The importance of game theory in decision making

2. **Key Concepts and Terminologies**
   - Nash Equilibrium
   - Dominant strategies and Pareto efficiency
   - Zero-sum games vs non-zero-sum games

3. **Classic Games and Dilemmas**
   - The Prisoner's Dilemma
   - The Stag Hunt
   - The Battle of the Sexes

4. **Game Theory in Economics and Business**
   - Auctions and bidding strategies
   - Market competition and oligopolies
   - Contract theory and mechanism design

5. **Game Theory in Politics and International Relations**
   - Electoral strategies and voting systems
   - Deterrence and arms races
   - Coalition building and negotiation

6. **Evolutionary Game Theory**
   - Evolution of cooperation
   - Social norms and conventions
   - Game theory in biology and ecology

7. **Behavioral Game Theory**
   - Irrational behaviors and bounded rationality
   - Trust, reputation, and fairness
   - Experimental game theory

8. **Applications and Case Studies**
   - Applying game theory in everyday life
   - Historical case studies
   - Future directions and new frontiers

9. **Conclusion**
   - Summary of key learnings
   - How to continue exploring game theory
   - Final thoughts and reflections

### Step 3: Confirmation and Writing

Let's confirm if you're happy with this outline. Once confirmed, we'll proceed to write each chapter, ensuring you're satisfied before moving to the next.

### Step 4: Preparing for Publication

After writing, we'll need to:
- Create a cover image
- Format the manuscript for Amazon (e.g., Kindle Direct Publishing guidelines)
- Consider additional elements like ISBN, author bio, and a compelling book blurb

Do you want to proceed with this outline, or are there any adjustments you'd like to make?

GPT-4 did a good job following all the instructions I provided in my prompt. I don’t love the title but I like the sub title. I’ll go back and work on a better title later. The description is pretty good. There aren’t enough chapter topics so I suspect the chapters will be too short. That’s because of the sentence: “The outline should include a chapter list and a few bullet points for each chapter.” I should not have limited the bullet points to a few. But I’m not spending more than an hour so I’ll deal with that later if I decide to move forward. So for now, I'm going with it as is.

My next prompt is:

Yes, let's proceed with this outline

ChatGPT gets to work on the first chapter and comes back with.

Great! Let's begin writing the first chapter. Since each chapter is a substantial piece of writing, I'll provide a concise version that you can expand upon.

---

# Chapter 1: Introduction to Game Theory

**Definition and Historical Background**
Game theory, a field of applied mathematics, provides a framework for analyzing situations in which parties, known as players, make decisions that are interdependent. This interdependence causes each player to consider the other's possible decisions or strategies when making their own. The origins of game theory can be traced back to the early 20th century, with significant contributions from John von Neumann, John Nash, and others.

**Basic Concepts: Players, Strategies, and Payoffs**
In game theory, a 'player' can be an individual, a group of individuals, or even a biological species. A 'strategy' is a complete plan of action a player will follow in a given situation. A 'payoff' is the outcome of a strategy, often quantified in terms of utility or some form of benefit or cost.

**The Importance of Game Theory in Decision Making**
Game theory has become an essential tool in economics, political science, psychology, and biology. It helps in understanding and analyzing strategic interactions in competitive and cooperative environments. From understanding economic markets and political elections to studying evolutionary biology, game theory provides insights into how and why individuals and groups make decisions.

---

Let me know if you're satisfied with this brief version of Chapter 1, or if you have any specific changes or additions in mind. Once approved, we'll proceed to the next chapter!

As I suspected, the chapter is too short, but not a bad start. I’m just going to continue.

Yes, let's proceed with this chapter

Here is what I get back for chapter 2.

Great! Let's move on to Chapter 2.

---

# Chapter 2: Key Concepts and Terminologies

**Nash Equilibrium**
The Nash Equilibrium, named after mathematician John Nash, is a fundamental concept in game theory. It represents a situation where no player can benefit by changing their strategy while the other players keep their strategies unchanged. This concept is crucial for understanding the stability of the strategies chosen by the players in various games.

**Dominant Strategies and Pareto Efficiency**
A dominant strategy is an action that is the best choice for a player, no matter what the other players do. On the other hand, Pareto efficiency, named after economist Vilfredo Pareto, occurs when no player can be made better off without making at least one player worse off. This concept is used to analyze the efficiency and desirability of different outcomes in a game.

**Zero-Sum Games vs Non-Zero-Sum Games**
In zero-sum games, one player’s gain is equivalent to another player’s loss, so the total gain or loss in the game is zero. Examples include games like chess or poker. In contrast, non-zero-sum games are scenarios where the sum of gains and losses can be more than zero, which is typical in most real-world situations. These games illustrate the potential for cooperative strategies where all players can benefit.

---

This chapter introduces the reader to some of the core concepts and terminologies in game theory. Let me know if this aligns with your vision for Chapter 2, and if you're ready to proceed to the next chapter or if there are any adjustments you'd like to make.

It's now 7:34 AM - I've spent 27 minutes on this so far. I’ve been trying to copy everything into VS Code to formate everything in markdown for a blog post. That slowing me down. I’ll just move on in ChatGPT and worry about getting a blog post done later - or maybe not.

Moving on.

Yes, let's proceed with this chapter

The completion for chapter 3 was:

Fantastic! Moving on to Chapter 3.

---

# Chapter 3: Classic Games and Dilemmas

**The Prisoner's Dilemma**
The Prisoner's Dilemma is a standard example of a game analyzed in game theory that shows why two completely rational individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interest to do so. It is a fundamental problem in understanding trust, cooperation, and decision-making between parties.

**The Stag Hunt**
The Stag Hunt is another important game in game theory that demonstrates how cooperation and trust play a role in achieving the best outcome. It contrasts with the Prisoner's Dilemma by showing a situation where mutual cooperation is the best strategy for all, but this requires trust that the other party will not defect.

**The Battle of the Sexes**
This game illustrates a conflict between two parties, each preferring different outcomes. It is used to demonstrate coordination games, where players must coordinate their strategies for a more favorable outcome but have different preferences on which outcome to coordinate on.

---

These classic games are essential for understanding the various dynamics at play in game theory. They provide foundational knowledge for grasping more complex scenarios and applications. Let me know if this chapter meets your expectations and whether you're ready to move on to the next one or if there are any changes you'd like to see.

I'm going to continue with the next chapter.

Yes, let's proceed with this chapter

Here is what I get for chapter 4:

Excellent! Now we'll delve into Chapter 4, focusing on game theory in the context of economics and business.

---

# Chapter 4: Game Theory in Economics and Business

**Auctions and Bidding Strategies**
In the world of economics and business, auctions play a significant role. Game theory helps in understanding various auction formats and bidding strategies. It explores how bidders strategize to win auctions while trying to pay as little as possible, from sealed-bid auctions to English and Dutch auctions.

**Market Competition and Oligopolies**
Game theory is instrumental in analyzing market competition, especially in oligopolistic markets where a few firms dominate. It examines how companies strategize regarding pricing, product differentiation, and market expansion, considering the potential reactions of competitors.

**Contract Theory and Mechanism Design**
Contract theory, a part of game theory, explores how economic actors construct contractual arrangements, generally in the presence of asymmetric information. It is vital in designing mechanisms or systems that lead to desirable outcomes by aligning the interests of different parties, such as in auctions, voting systems, or incentive structures.

---

This chapter provides a practical application of game theory in real-world economic and business scenarios, demonstrating its value in strategic decision-making and policy design. If you're satisfied with the content and structure of this chapter, we can proceed to the next one. Please let me know if there are any modifications or additions you would like.

I really didn’t need to have it prompt me for a confirmation after each chapter since I’m just rolling through the process. But if I was spending more time. This would be the right way to go.

Anyhow, moving on.

Let's continue

The completion was:

Great, moving on to Chapter 5, which explores the application of game theory in politics and international relations.

---

# Chapter 5: Game Theory in Politics and International Relations

**Electoral Strategies and Voting Systems**
Game theory offers valuable insights into electoral strategies, helping to understand how candidates and parties choose their platforms and campaign strategies. It also sheds light on the effectiveness and implications of different voting systems, such as first-past-the-post and proportional representation, on election outcomes.

**Deterrence and Arms Races**
In international relations, game theory is crucial for understanding deterrence and arms races. It helps analyze how nations develop strategies around the development and deployment of military resources, balancing the desire for power with the risks of escalation and conflict.

**Coalition Building and Negotiation**
Game theory also applies to the formation of coalitions in politics and the dynamics of international negotiations. It explores how parties with different interests can find common ground, the dynamics of cooperation and conflict, and the strategies for effective negotiation and coalition-building.

---

This chapter provides insights into the strategic complexities in the realms of politics and international relations through the lens of game theory. If this chapter aligns with your expectations, we can move forward to the next one. Please let me know if you'd like any changes or additional content.

I'm going to continue with the next chapter.

Yes, let's proceed with this chapter

Here is what I get for chapter 6:

Great! Let's continue with Chapter 6, focusing on evolutionary game theory.

---

# Chapter 6: Evolutionary Game Theory

**Evolution of Cooperation**
Evolutionary game theory extends traditional game theory into the study of evolution and natural selection, particularly focusing on how cooperative behavior can evolve in populations. It examines the conditions under which cooperation can emerge and be sustained among self-interested individuals, a question crucial to understanding social behaviors.

**Social Norms and Conventions**
This aspect of game theory explores how certain behaviors become social norms and conventions. It looks at how these norms evolve, are enforced, and sometimes change over time, providing a framework for understanding the development of societal rules and the role of individual actions in shaping social dynamics.

**Game Theory in Biology and Ecology**
In biology and ecology, game theory models are used to understand and predict the behavior of various species in their struggle for survival. This includes analysis of predator-prey dynamics, mating strategies, and resource competition, offering insights into the adaptive behaviors of different organisms.

---

Evolutionary game theory provides a fascinating perspective on the natural world and human society, bridging the gap between biological processes and social interactions. If you're satisfied with this chapter and ready to move forward, please let me know. Alternatively, if there are specific aspects you'd like to add or modify, feel free to mention them.

Moving on.

Yes, let's proceed with this chapter

And, here is what I get for chapter 7:

Excellent! Now, we'll proceed to Chapter 7, which delves into behavioral game theory.

---

# Chapter 7: Behavioral Game Theory

**Irrational Behaviors and Bounded Rationality**
Behavioral game theory challenges the assumption of complete rationality in traditional game theory. It examines how cognitive biases, emotions, and limited cognitive resources (bounded rationality) affect decision-making. This perspective is crucial for understanding real-world decisions, which often deviate from what is predicted by classical rational models.

**Trust, Reputation, and Fairness**
Trust and reputation play significant roles in many strategic interactions. Behavioral game theory explores how these factors influence decisions, particularly in repeated games. It also delves into concepts of fairness and how individuals' perceptions of fairness affect their strategic choices, even sometimes leading them to act against their own self-interest for the sake of equitable outcomes.

**Experimental Game Theory**
Experimental game theory involves conducting experiments, often with human subjects, to study strategic interaction in controlled settings. These experiments help in testing and refining theoretical predictions of game theory, providing empirical evidence about how people actually behave in strategic situations.

---

This chapter brings a human element to game theory, considering how real people behave in strategic situations, which can be quite different from theoretical predictions. Let me know if this chapter captures the essence of what you envisioned for behavioral game theory. If you're ready to proceed to the next chapter or if there are any adjustments or additions, please share your thoughts.

Still just continuing with the next chapter.

Yes, let's proceed with this chapter

Here is the completion for chapter 8:

Great, let's move on to Chapter 8, which will focus on the applications and case studies of game theory.

---

# Chapter 8: Applications and Case Studies

**Applying Game Theory in Everyday Life**
Game theory isn't just an academic discipline; its principles can be applied in everyday decision-making. This section explores various real-life scenarios, from negotiating salaries to making purchasing decisions, where game theory principles can be applied for more strategic and effective outcomes.

**Historical Case Studies**
To illustrate the practicality of game theory, this chapter includes a selection of historical case studies. These might include critical moments in economic history, political decisions, and even famous military strategies, analyzed through the lens of game theory to provide a deeper understanding of the strategic choices made.

**Future Directions and New Frontiers**
The field of game theory is continually evolving, and this section explores emerging trends and potential future applications. This includes its growing influence in areas like technology, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and complex system analysis, highlighting how game theory is likely to shape decision-making in various domains in the future.

---

This chapter aims to bridge the gap between theory and real-world application, showcasing the versatility and relevance of game theory. If you're satisfied with the content and direction of this chapter, we can wrap up with the conclusion next. Please let me know if there are any changes or additional topics you'd like included.

And now for the last chapter.

Yes, let's proceed

Here is the final chapter:

Fantastic! We'll now conclude with Chapter 9.

---

# Chapter 9: Conclusion

**Summary of Key Learnings**
This concluding chapter will recapitulate the main concepts covered throughout the book. It will summarize the key principles of game theory, its applications in various fields, and the insights it provides into strategic decision-making, cooperation, competition, and human behavior.

**How to Continue Exploring Game Theory**
For readers interested in delving deeper into the subject, this section will provide guidance on further resources and study paths. It will include recommendations for advanced books, online courses, and other educational materials to continue exploring the vast and fascinating world of game theory.

**Final Thoughts and Reflections**
The book will close with reflections on the importance of understanding game theory in today's interconnected and complex world. It will emphasize how the principles of game theory can be applied in personal, professional, and societal contexts to make more informed and strategic decisions.

---

With this conclusion, your book on game theory would be complete in its content. Let me know if this conclusion aligns with your vision, or if there are any final thoughts or messages you'd like to include.

After this, the next steps would involve preparing your manuscript for publication, including formatting, cover design, and other publishing logistics.

Now, because of my initial prompt, I get a few suggestions for next steps. So, I'll ask what I need to do to prepare it for publishing on Amazon.

What do I need to do to prepare this book for publishing on Amazon?

The completion was:

Publishing a book on Amazon, particularly through Kindle Direct Publishing (KDP), is a straightforward process but requires attention to several key details. Here’s a step-by-step guide to get your book ready for Amazon:

### 1. Finalize Your Manuscript
- **Editing and Proofreading**: Ensure your book is thoroughly edited and proofread. This includes checking for grammatical errors, consistency in style and formatting, and overall flow of the content.

### 2. Format Your Manuscript
- **KDP Formatting**: Amazon has specific formatting requirements. Your manuscript should be formatted according to KDP’s guidelines, which include margins, font, line spacing, and chapter headings. KDP provides templates to make this easier.
- **File Format**: The preferred format for Amazon is a Word document (.doc or .docx), but you can also submit your manuscript in other formats like PDF.

### 3. Design a Book Cover
- **Professional Cover Design**: The book cover is crucial as it's the first thing potential readers see. You can design it yourself or hire a professional. The cover must meet Amazon’s dimension and quality requirements.
- **Cover Art**: If you’re using images, ensure you have the rights to use them. KDP offers a Cover Creator tool with pre-made designs and royalty-free images.

### 4. Create a Compelling Book Description
- **Engaging Description**: Write a description that clearly summarizes your book and entices readers. Include key points and what readers can expect to learn.

### 5. Consider Additional Elements
- **ISBN**: While Amazon can provide a free ISBN for your book, getting your own ISBN gives you more control and wider distribution options outside of Amazon.
- **Author Bio**: Prepare a brief author biography that will appear on your book’s Amazon page.

### 6. Upload to Kindle Direct Publishing
- **Create a KDP Account**: If you don’t already have one, create a KDP account.
- **Upload Manuscript and Cover**: Follow the steps on KDP to upload your manuscript and cover.
- **Set Your Book Details**: This includes the title, description, keywords, categories, and author information. Good keywords and categories help your book become more discoverable on Amazon.

### 7. Choose Distribution Channels and Pricing
- **Select Distribution Channels**: Decide whether to distribute your book globally or in specific territories.
- **Set Pricing**: Determine the price of your ebook and paperback. Consider your book’s length, genre, and target audience. KDP also offers a royalty calculator to estimate earnings.

### 8. Publish and Promote
- **Review and Publish**: Once everything is set, review your book details and hit publish. It typically takes 24 to 72 hours for the book to appear on Amazon.
- **Marketing and Promotion**: Plan for marketing your book. This can include social media promotion, email marketing, getting reviews, and possibly creating a website or blog.

### 9. Monitor and Update
- **Sales Dashboard**: KDP provides a dashboard to track sales and royalties.
- **Update as Needed**: You can make changes to your book and republish if needed.

Remember, self-publishing requires not only writing but also marketing and promoting your book to reach a wider audience. Good luck with your publishing journey!

Again, I've never self published a book on Amazon before. But it looks like I need to get everything into a Word doc. I'll do that manually by copying and pasting everything into a Google Doc, and then I’ll export the Google Doc to a Word document.

For this to be fully automated, I'd need a way to merge all the chapters into a single document using APIs or something. I'm sure there is a way to do that. I'll look into it later.

It's now 7:57 AM. I'm going to copy and paste the chapters into Google Docs, export it Word, and then call it a day.

I didn't get the book done in an hour but it's a good start. I'll come back to it later.

Here’s the book after 1-hour. It’s not great but it’s a starting point.

8:06 AM - stopping.